2013 TV135
| Discovery[1] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (095) |
| Discovery date | 2013 October 12 |
| Designations | |
| MPC designation | 2013 TV135 |
| Apollo NEO, PHA[2] |
|
| Orbital characteristics[2] | |
| Epoch 13 January 2016 (JD 2457400.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 4 | |
| Observation arc | 108 days |
| Aphelion | 3.8684 AU (578.70 Gm) (Q) |
| Perihelion | 0.98712 AU (147.671 Gm) (q) |
| 2.4278 AU (363.19 Gm) (a) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.59340 (e) |
| 3.78 yr (1381.7 d) | |
| 219.63° (M) | |
| Inclination | 6.7499° (i) |
| 333.42° (Ω) | |
| 23.707° (ω) | |
| Earth MOID | 0.00474236 AU (709,447 km) |
| Jupiter MOID | 1.6039 AU (239.94 Gm) |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions | ~450 meters (1,480 ft)[3] |
| Mass | 1.2e×1011 kg (assumed)[3] |
| 19.5[2] | |
2013 TV135 is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid estimated to have a diameter of 450 meters (1,480 ft).[3] On September 16, 2013, it passed about 0.0448 AU (6,700,000 km; 4,160,000 mi) from Earth.[2] On September 20, 2013, it came to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun).[2] The asteroid was discovered on October 12, 2013 by the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory using images dating back to October 8, 2013.[1] It was discovered by Ukrainian astronomer Gennady Borisov with a custom 0.2-meter (7.9 in) telescope. It was rated level 1 on the Torino Scale from October 16, 2013 until JPL solution 26 on November 3, 2013. It was removed from the JPL Sentry Risk Table on November 8, 2013 using JPL solution 32 with an observation arc of 27 days.[4]
Contents
Past Earth-impact estimates
On October 16, 2013, near-Earth asteroid 2013 TV135 (with a short observation arc of 7 days) was listed on the JPL Sentry Risk Table with 1 in 63,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032.[5][6] This gave the asteroid a Torino Scale rating of 1.[6] The peak estimated threat from the asteroid occurred October 19–20, 2013 when Leonid Elenin and NEODyS estimated the odds of impact to be 0.03% (1 in 3,800).[7] On October 31, 2013, NEODyS estimated the odds of impact to be 1 in 4,330[8] and the Sentry Risk Table estimated the odds of impact to be 1 in 6,250.[9] On November 7, 2013, with a short observation arc of 25 days, the Sentry Risk Table estimated it had about a 1 in 169,492,000 chance of an Earth impact on August 26, 2032.[3] It was removed from the JPL Sentry Risk Table on November 8, 2013 using JPL solution 32 with an observation arc of 27 days.[4]
As of February 10, 2014[update], the NEODyS nominal best-fit orbit shows that 2013 TV135 will be 0.76 AU (114,000,000 km; 71,000,000 mi) from Earth on August 26, 2032.[10]
Orbit
With an orbital inclination of only 6.7 degrees and perihelion 0.99 au from the Sun,[2] the point of perihelion is controlled by close approaches to Earth. With a short observation arc of 108 days, it has an orbit with an Uncertainty of 4.[2] Given the relatively large size of the asteroid, astronomers were able to refine the orbit of this asteroid over several months.
Impact effects
An Earth impact would have the kinetic energy of 3,200 megatons of TNT,[3] approximately 60 times the energy of Russia's 50 Mt Tsar Bomba. This would also be equivalent to 16 times the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa which was 200 Mt and had a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6.
See also
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (5.9e-09 = 1 in 169,492,000 chance)
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (1.6e-05 = 1 in 63,000 chance)
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (2.31e-4 = 1 in 4,330 chance)
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (1.6e-04 = 1 in 6,250 chance)
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
External links
- 2013 TV135 Orbit at the Minor Planet Center
- 2013 TV135 Impact Risk at JPL / 2013TV135 Impactor Table at NEODyS
- WayBack Machine entry for 31 October 2013 showing a 1 in 22,000 chance of impact on 2032-08-26 with a 21-day observation arc
- Los Angeles Times : Ukrainian astronomers say asteroid might collide with Earth -- in 2032
- Minor Planet Center : MPEC 2013-U03 : 2013 TV135
- RT : 410-meter asteroid ‘may collide’ with Earth in 2032
- Space Fellowship : 400-Meter-Wide Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032
- No, the Earth (Almost Certainly) Won’t Get Hit by an Asteroid in 2032 (Phil Plait)
- Asteroid 2013 TV135: doomsday again (yawn) (Stuart Clark 18 Oct 2013)
- Big asteroid buzzes past Earth and will again in 19 years (CNN 18 Oct 2013)
- NASA: Less Than 1% Chance That Asteroid 2013 TV135 Will Hit Earth In 2032 (Elizabeth Howell Universe Today 18 Oct 2013)
- Why Is the Chance of an Asteroid Impact in 2032 Going Up? (Phil Plait)
- 2013 TV135 at the JPL Small-Body Database
