United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012
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← 2006 |
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) |
2018 → |
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Turnout |
64.6% (voting eligible)[1] |
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U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Brown. Red denotes those won by Mandel.
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election to a second term. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary and Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel won the Republican primary with 63% of the vote.[2][3]
Democratic Primary
Democratic Primary Results
Democratic primary results |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Democratic |
Sherrod Brown (Incumbent) |
802,678 |
100.00 |
Total votes |
802,678 |
100.00 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Filed
Withdrew
Endorsements
Josh Mandel was endorsed by Rob Portman, U.S. Senator (R-OH);[10] Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (R-SC);[11] Jim Jordan, U.S. Congressman (R-OH);[12] Club for Growth;[13] National Rifle Association;[14] Tea Party Express;[15] Jeb Bush, Former Governor of Florida;[16] John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ);[17] Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL);[18] Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey;[19] Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress (AIVC);[20] Buckeye Firearms Association[21] National Right to Life Committee;[22] Ohio Right to Life;[23] and National Federation of Independent Business[24]
Results
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General election
Candidates
Debates
The candidates engaged in three debates: October 15, October 18 and October 25. The third debate took place Thursday, October 25 at 7 p.m. in Cincinnati. NBC White House Correspondent Chuck Todd moderated the debate with anchor/political reporter Colleen Marshall from WCMH in Columbus, anchor Sheree Paolello from WLWT in Cincinnati, and political reporter Tom Beres from WKYC in Cleveland. It was live on all Ohio NBC affiliates.[27]
Campaign
In 2006, U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown defeated two-term incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mike DeWine 56%-44% 2006 election. Over the past six years, he established a very liberal, progressive, and populist record. The National Journal named Brown the most liberal U.S. Senator in the past two years.[28] The Washington Post called him a "modern-day Paul Wellstone." One article said “Brown is way to the left of Ohio in general, but probably the only person who could outwork Brown is Portman.”[29] Brown is the only candidate the 60 Plus Association targeted in the 2012 election cycle.[30]
Mandel, 34, was elected State Treasurer in 2010. Before that, he was a Lyndhurst City Councilman and Ohio State Representative. He was criticized as Ohio Treasurer for not fulfilling his pledge to serve a four-year term and for not attending any of the Board of Deposit monthly meetings.[31] However, Mandel raised a lot of money. He was called a rising star in the Republican Party and was called "the rock star of the party." He was also compared to Marco Rubio.[32]
Mandel's campaign was singled out by the independent fact-checking group Politifact for its "casual relationship with the truth" and its tendency to "double down" after inaccuracies were pointed out. The fact-checking group wrote: "For all the gifts Mandel has, from his compelling personal narrative as an Iraq war veteran to a well-oiled fundraising machine, whoppers are fast becoming a calling card of his candidacy."[33]
Mandel raised $7.2 million through the first quarter of 2012. He had $5.3 million cash on hand, trailing Brown's $6.3 million.[34] However, Mandel benefited from massive support from conservative out-of-state superPACs, which raise unlimited amounts of money from anonymous donors. These outside groups, including Crossroads GPS, aired over $60 million in TV advertising supporting Mandel and attacking Brown,[35] outspending Democratically-aligned outside groups by more than five-to-one.[36] Mandel's campaign was aided by over $1 million spent primarily on attack ads by a 501(c)(4) organization called the Government Integrity Fund. The group was funded by anonymous donors and run by lobbyist Tom Norris of Columbus, Ohio-based Cap Square Solutions.[37]
Endorsements
Brown was endorsed by the Cleveland Plain Dealer,[38] the Columbus Dispatch,[39] the Toledo Blade,[40] the Youngstown Vindicator,[41] the Cincinnati Enquirer,[42] and the Akron Beacon-Journal.[43]
Mandel was endorsed by the Warren Tribune-Chronicle[44] and the Marietta Times.[45]
Fundraising
Candidate (party) |
Receipts |
Disbursements |
Cash on hand |
Debt |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
$8,132,882 |
$3,379,775 |
$6,273,316 |
$0 |
Josh Mandel (R) |
$7,286,390 |
$1,999,397 |
$5,286,993 |
$0 |
Scott Rupert (I) |
$3,153 |
$2,594 |
$389 |
$0 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[46][47][48] |
Top contributors
[49]
Sherrod Brown |
Contribution |
Josh Mandel |
Contribution |
JStreetPAC |
$71,175 |
Club for Growth |
$172,904 |
Ohio State University |
$69,470 |
Senate Conservatives Fund |
$114,400 |
Kohrman, Jackson & Krantz |
$59,500 |
Suarez Corp |
$90,000 |
Cleveland Clinic |
$57,971 |
Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman |
$41,600 |
Forest City Enterprises |
$51,600 |
American Financial Group |
$32,750 |
American Electric Power |
$42,350 |
Cintas Corp |
$30,000 |
Squire Sanders |
$39,400 |
Sullivan & Cromwell |
$25,475 |
Baker & Hostetler |
$38,906 |
Susquehanna International Group |
$22,500 |
Case Western Reserve University |
$35,450 |
Timken Company |
$22,500 |
Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease |
$34,167 |
Crawford Group |
$22,000 |
Top industries
[50]
Sherrod Brown |
Contribution |
Josh Mandel |
Contribution |
Lawyers/Law Firms |
$1,587,113 |
Retired |
$480,900 |
Retired |
$942,717 |
Financial Institutions |
$397,140 |
Health Professionals |
$536,954 |
Real Estate |
$371,057 |
Real Estate |
$435,066 |
Lawyers/Law Firms |
$362,515 |
Lobbyists |
$393,651 |
Leadership PACs |
$320,050 |
Education |
$369,722 |
Republican/Conservative |
$278,924 |
Leadership PACs |
$318,975 |
Manufacturing & Distributing |
$276,600 |
Hospitals/Nursing Homes |
$286,072 |
Misc Finance |
$205,350 |
Insurance |
$223,983 |
Retail Industry |
$166,650 |
Financial Institutions |
$204,350 |
Pro-Israel |
$163,000 |
Polling
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Josh
Mandel (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Rasmussen Reports |
November 4, 2012 |
750 |
± 4% |
50% |
48% |
1% |
1% |
Public Policy Polling |
November 3–4, 2012 |
1,000 |
± 3.1% |
54% |
44% |
— |
3% |
Angus Reid Public Opinion |
November 2–4, 2012 |
572 |
± 4.1% |
52% |
46% |
2% |
— |
SurveyUSA |
November 1–4, 2012 |
803 |
± 3.5% |
44% |
41% |
4% |
9% |
Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati |
October 31–November 4, 2012 |
901 |
± 3.3% |
51% |
47% |
3% |
— |
Columbus Dispatch |
October 24–November 3, 2012 |
1,501 |
± 2.2% |
51% |
45% |
4% |
— |
Rasmussen Reports |
November 1, 2012 |
750 |
± 4.0% |
48% |
48% |
2% |
2% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
October 31–November 1, 2012 |
971 |
± 3.1% |
50% |
45% |
1% |
4% |
Reuters/Ipsos |
October 29–31, 2012 |
885 |
± 3.8% |
49% |
41% |
4% |
6% |
985 |
± 3.6% |
46% |
40% |
3% |
11% |
University of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll |
October 25–30, 2012 |
1,182 |
± 2.9% |
49% |
44% |
4% |
3% |
Zogby/Newsmax |
October 27–29, 2012 |
825 |
± 3.5% |
46% |
38% |
8% |
9% |
SurveyUSA |
October 26–29, 2012 |
603 |
± 4.1% |
46% |
41% |
3% |
10% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 28, 2012 |
750 |
± 4.0% |
50% |
48% |
1% |
1% |
Pharos Research |
October 26–28, 2012 |
765 |
± 3.5% |
53% |
43% |
— |
7% |
Public Policy Polling |
October 26–28, 2012 |
718 |
± 3.7% |
53% |
42% |
— |
6% |
CBS/Quinnipiac University |
October 23–28, 2012 |
1,110 |
± 3.0% |
51% |
42% |
— |
7% |
Gravis Marketing |
October 27, 2012 |
730 |
± 3.6% |
48% |
47% |
— |
5% |
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News |
October 18–23, 2012 |
1,015 |
± 3.1% |
51% |
47% |
1% |
2% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 23, 2012 |
750 |
± 4.0% |
48% |
44% |
2% |
5% |
SurveyUSA |
October 20–22, 2012 |
725 |
± 4.2% |
43% |
42% |
3% |
12% |
Pharos Research |
October 19–21, 2012 |
810 |
± 3.4% |
52% |
41% |
— |
7% |
Suffolk |
October 18–21, 2012 |
600 |
unknown |
46% |
39% |
6% |
10% |
Angus Reid Public Opinion |
October 18–20, 2012 |
550 |
± 4.2% |
52% |
45% |
3% |
— |
Public Policy Polling |
October 18–20, 2012 |
532 |
± 4.3% |
49% |
44% |
— |
7% |
CBS News/Quinnipiac |
October 17–20, 2012 |
1,548 |
± 3.0% |
51% |
42% |
— |
7% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 17, 2012 |
750 |
± 4.0% |
49% |
44% |
1% |
5% |
Survey USA |
October 12–15, 2012 |
613 |
± 4.0% |
43% |
38% |
4% |
14% |
Public Policy Polling |
October 12–13, 2012 |
880 |
± 3.3% |
49% |
42% |
— |
9% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 10, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
47% |
46% |
2% |
4% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll |
October 7–9, 2012 |
994 |
± 3.1% |
52% |
41% |
1% |
6% |
SurveyUSA |
October 5–8, 2012 |
808 |
± 3.5% |
42% |
38% |
4% |
16% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 4, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
46% |
46% |
2% |
6% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
September 30–October 1, 2012 |
931 |
± 3.2% |
50% |
41% |
1% |
7% |
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac |
September 18–24, 2012 |
1,162 |
± 4.0% |
50% |
40% |
— |
10% |
Washington Post |
September 19–23, 2012 |
934 |
± 4.0% |
53% |
41% |
— |
6% |
Gravis Marketing |
September 21–22, 2012 |
594 |
± 4.3% |
44% |
43% |
— |
13% |
Fox News Poll |
September 16–18, 2012 |
1,009 |
± 3.0% |
47% |
40% |
1% |
9% |
Ohio Newspaper Organization |
September 13–18, 2012 |
861 |
± 3.3% |
52% |
45% |
1% |
2% |
Rasmussen Reports |
September 12, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
49% |
41% |
3% |
7% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll |
September 9–11, 2012 |
979 |
± 3.1% |
49% |
42% |
— |
9% |
Public Policy Polling |
September 7–9, 2012 |
1,072 |
± 3.0% |
48% |
40% |
— |
11% |
Gravis Marketing |
September 7–8, 2012 |
1,548 |
± 2.7% |
47% |
42% |
— |
11% |
Columbus Dispatch |
August 15–25, 2012 |
1,758 |
± 2.1% |
44% |
44% |
— |
12% |
Ohio Poll |
August 16–21, 2012 |
847 |
± 3.4% |
48% |
47% |
— |
5% |
Quinnipiac |
August 15–21, 2012 |
1,253 |
± 2.8% |
48% |
45% |
1% |
10% |
Rasmussen Reports |
August 13, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
44% |
44% |
3% |
9% |
Quinnipiac |
July 24–30, 2012 |
1,193 |
± 2.8% |
51% |
39% |
1% |
9% |
Magellan Strategies |
July 23–24, 2012 |
597 |
± 4.0% |
45% |
38% |
12% |
5% |
Rasmussen Reports |
July 18, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
46% |
42% |
4% |
8% |
Quinnipiac |
June 19–25, 2012 |
1,237 |
± 2.8% |
50% |
34% |
1% |
14% |
Public Policy Polling |
June 21–24, 2012 |
673 |
± 3.8% |
46% |
39% |
— |
15% |
Rasmussen Reports |
May 29, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
47% |
42% |
3% |
7% |
NBC News/Marist |
May 17–20, 2012 |
1,103 |
± 3.0% |
51% |
37% |
— |
12% |
Quinnipiac |
May 2–7, 2012 |
1,069 |
± 3.0% |
46% |
40% |
1% |
13% |
Public Policy Polling |
May 3–6, 2012 |
875 |
± 3.3% |
45% |
37% |
— |
19% |
Rasmussen Reports |
April 18, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
44% |
41% |
3% |
12% |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 26, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
43% |
43% |
3% |
11% |
Quinnipiac |
March 20–26, 2012 |
1,246 |
± 2.8% |
46% |
36% |
3% |
14% |
NBC News/Marist |
February 29–March 2, 2012 |
3,079 |
± 1.8% |
47% |
37% |
— |
16% |
Quinnipiac |
February 7–12, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
48% |
35% |
4% |
17% |
Rasmussen Reports |
February 8, 2012 |
500 |
± 4.5% |
44% |
40% |
4% |
12% |
Public Policy Polling |
January 28–29, 2012 |
820 |
± 3.4% |
47% |
36% |
— |
17% |
Quinnipiac |
January 9–16, 2012 |
1,610 |
± 2.4% |
47% |
32% |
1% |
18% |
Public Policy Polling |
November 4–6, 2011 |
1,421 |
± 2.6% |
48% |
35% |
— |
14% |
Quinnipiac |
October 17–23, 2011 |
1,668 |
± 2.4% |
49% |
34% |
1% |
14% |
Public Policy Polling |
October 13–16, 2011 |
581 |
± 4.1% |
48% |
40% |
— |
12% |
Quinnipiac |
September 20–25, 2011 |
1,301 |
± 2.7% |
49% |
36% |
— |
13% |
Public Policy Polling |
August 11–14, 2011 |
792 |
± 3.5% |
48% |
33% |
— |
19% |
Quinnipiac |
July 12–18, 2011 |
1,659 |
± 4.1% |
49% |
34% |
1% |
16% |
Public Policy Polling |
May 19–22, 2011 |
565 |
± 4.1% |
48% |
31% |
— |
21% |
Quinnipiac |
May 10–16, 2011 |
1,379 |
± 2.6% |
45% |
31% |
2% |
21% |
Public Policy Polling |
March 10–13, 2011 |
559 |
± 4.1% |
48% |
32% |
— |
21% |
Hypothetical polling
|
- Democratic primary
- Republican primary
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Kevin
Coughlin |
Josh
Mandel |
Other/
Undecided |
Quinnipiac |
September 20–25, 2011 |
423 |
± 4.8% |
12% |
33% |
53% |
Public Policy Polling |
August 11–14, 2011 |
400 |
± 4.9% |
12% |
31% |
57% |
Quinnipiac |
July 12–18, 2011 |
563 |
± 4.1% |
12% |
35% |
46% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Ken
Blackwell |
Kevin
Coughlin |
Josh
Mandel |
Other/
Undecided |
Quinnipiac |
May 10–16, 2011 |
|
± % |
33% |
5% |
17% |
46% |
- General election
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Ken
Blackwell (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
May 19–22, 2011 |
565 |
± 4.1% |
51% |
33% |
— |
15% |
Quinnipiac |
May 10–16, 2011 |
1,379 |
± 2.6% |
44% |
35% |
2% |
18% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Drew
Carey (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
March 10–13, 2011 |
559 |
± 4.1% |
49% |
34% |
— |
17% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Kevin
Coughlin (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Quinnipiac |
October 17–23, 2011 |
1,668 |
± 2.4% |
51% |
30% |
1% |
16% |
Public Policy Polling |
October 13–16, 2011 |
581 |
± 4.1% |
48% |
37% |
— |
15% |
Quinnipiac |
September 20–25, 2011 |
1,301 |
± 2.7% |
53% |
32% |
— |
13% |
Public Policy Polling |
August 11–14, 2011 |
792 |
± 3.5% |
47% |
33% |
— |
20% |
Quinnipiac |
July 12–18, 2011 |
1,659 |
± 4.1% |
50% |
32% |
1% |
18% |
Public Policy Polling |
May 19–22, 2011 |
565 |
± 4.1% |
51% |
30% |
— |
19% |
Quinnipiac |
May 10–16, 2011 |
1,379 |
± 2.6% |
44% |
28% |
3% |
23% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Mike
DeWine (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
December 10–12, 2010 |
510 |
± 4.3% |
43% |
43% |
— |
14% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Jon
Husted (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
March 10–13, 2011 |
559 |
± 4.1% |
49% |
34% |
— |
18% |
Public Policy Polling |
December 10–12, 2010 |
510 |
± 4.3% |
43% |
38% |
— |
18% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Steve
LaTourette (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
March 10–13, 2011 |
559 |
± 4.1% |
48% |
30% |
— |
22% |
Poll source |
Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size |
Margin of
error |
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Jim
Tressel (R) |
Other |
Undecided |
Public Policy Polling |
August 11–14, 2011 |
792 |
± 3.5% |
46% |
34% |
— |
20% |
|
Results
Brown did better than polls right before the election suggested. Instead of winning by two points (which polls right before the election had suggested) Brown won by six points. Republicans could not come back from the huge margins for the Democrats of Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Lucas County, and Hamilton County.
See also
References
External links
- Official campaign websites