2023 Dutch general election

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2023 Dutch general election
Netherlands
← 2021 22 November 2023
Turnout 77.8% (Decrease 0.91 pp)[1]
Party Leader % Seats ±
PVV 23.6 37
GroenLinks–PvdA 15.5 25
VVD 15.2 24
New Social Contract 12.8 20
D66 6.2 9
BBB 4.7 7
CDA 3.3 5
SP 3.1 5
DENK (political party) 2.3 3
Forum for Democracy (Netherlands) 2.2 3
PvdD 2.2 3
SGP 2.1 3
Christian Union (Netherlands) 2.0 3
Volt Netherlands 1.7 2
JA21 0.7 1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
File:2023 Dutch General Election Map.svg
Map of results by municipality & province
Cabinet before Cabinet after
Fourth Rutte cabinet
VVD–D66–CDA–CU		 TBD
TBD

Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the House of Representatives.[2][3]

The elections had been expected to be held in 2025, but a snap election was called after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements.[4] Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and retired from politics.[5] The results of the election were described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[6] with the Party for Freedom (PVV) set to become the largest party in the House of Representatives.[6][7][8]

Background

The 2021 general election resulted in the formation of the fourth Rutte cabinet, consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). Mark Rutte continued in his role as prime minister.[9]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The 2023 Dutch provincial elections, which was won by the BBB, led to heavy loses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elects the Dutch Senate.[10] It meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.[11]

The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict.[4][12] The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues.[13] The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. The opposition to Rutte's proposal, primarily from the CU and D66, led to a breakdown in negotiations.[14][15] This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.[16]

Leadership changes

On 10 July 2023, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he would not run again as lead candidate for the VVD, and leave politics when a new cabinet would be sworn in. Other party leaders and parliamentary leaders also announced they would not return, including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra, Pieter Heerma (both CDA),[17] Attje Kuiken (PvdA),[18] Kees van der Staaij (SGP),[19] Farid Azarkan (DENK),[20] Liane den Haan (independent),[21] Nilüfer Gündoğan (independent),[22] and Sylvana Simons (BIJ1).[23] Jesse Klaver announced that, although he wanted to continue as member of parliament, he would not be candidate for leader of the Labour Party–GroenLinks alliance. Additionally, Vera Bergkamp, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not stand for reelection.[24]

Electoral system

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Main article: Elections in the Netherlands
File:Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023 in Delft (009).jpg
Ballot of the 2023 Dutch general election

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[25] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively 1/4 of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[26][27]

Political parties and lead candidates

The following parties have announced their intent to participate in the election:

List Party Main ideology Lead candidate 2021 result Districts Ref.
1 People's Party for Freedom and Democracy VVD Conservative liberalism Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius 21.87% (34 seats) 20 [28]
2 Democrats 66 D66 Social liberalism Rob Jetten 15.02% (24 seats) 20 [29]
3
GL/PvdA Social democracy, green politics Frans Timmermans 10.88% (17 seats)[lower-alpha 1] 20 [30][31]
4 Party for Freedom PVV Nationalism, right-wing populism Geert Wilders 10.79% (17 seats) 20 [32]
5 Christian Democratic Appeal CDA Christian democracy Henri Bontenbal 9.50% (15 seats) 20 [33][34]
6 Socialist Party SP Democratic socialism, left-wing populism Lilian Marijnissen 5.98% (9 seats) 20 [35]
7 Forum for Democracy FVD National conservatism, right-wing populism Thierry Baudet 5.02% (8 seats) 20 [36]
8 Party for the Animals PvdD Environmentalism, Animal rights advocacy Esther Ouwehand 3.84% (6 seats) 20 [37]
9 Christian Union CU Christian democracy Mirjam Bikker 3.37% (5 seats) 20 [38]
10 Volt Netherlands Volt Eurofederalism Laurens Dassen 2.42% (3 seats) 20 [39][40]
11 JA21 JA21 Conservative liberalism, right-wing populism Joost Eerdmans 2.37% (3 seats) 20 [41]
12 Reformed Political Party SGP Christian right Chris Stoffer 2.07% (3 seats) 20 [42]
13 DENK DENK Minority interests Stephan van Baarle 2.03% (3 seats) 20 [43]
14 50PLUS 50+ Pensioners' interests Gerard van Hooft 1.02% (1 seat) 20 [44]
15 Farmer–Citizen Movement BBB Agrarianism Caroline van der Plas 1.00% (1 seat) 20 [45]
16 BIJ1 BIJ1 Anti-racism Edson Olf 0.84% (1 seat) 20 [46][47]
17
PPNL/DG Pirate politics, green politics Mark van Treuren 0.22% (0 seats)[lower-alpha 2] 20 [48][49]
18 Interest of the Netherlands BVNL Right-wing populism, conservative liberalism Wybren van Haga — 20 [50]
19 New Social Contract NSC Christian democracy Pieter Omtzigt — 20 [51]
20 Splinter SPL Anti-identity politics Femke Merel van Kooten-Arissen 0.29% (0 seats) 20 [52]
21 Libertarian Party LP Libertarianism Tom van Lamoen 0.05% (0 seats) 19 [53]
22 LEF – For the New Generation LEF Youth politics Daniël van Duijn — 19 [54]
23 Together for the Netherlands SvN Right-wing populism Michel Reijinga — 19 [55][56]
24 Netherlands with a Plan NLPLAN Participatory democracy Kok Kuen Chan — 17 [57]
25 Party for Sports PvdS Health promotion Annemarie van Duivenboden — 11 [58]
26 Political Party for Basic Income PPvB Universal basic income advocacy Sepp Hannen — 8 [59]

Campaign

Debates

Dutch general election debates, 2023
Date Organisers Channel Venue  P  Present   I  Invited   NI  Not invited   A  Absent   Ref.
22 October College Tour NPO 3 Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI NI P [60]
30 October GL/PvdA, NSC Youtube Luxor Live, Arnhem NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI [61][62]
3 November NOS NPO Radio 1 Nieuwspoort, The Hague P P P P P P P P A P P P P P P P P [63]
5 November RTL Nieuws RTL 4 Felix Meritis, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI P [64]
12 November NI NI NI NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [65]
16 November Talpa TV SBS6 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI P P [66]
17 November ND Verkiezingsdebat Youtube De Basiliek, Veenendaal NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI [67]
17 November SP, NSC Youtube Unknown NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [68]
17 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Media Park, Hilversum NI P P NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [69]
18 November NI NI NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI [69]
18 November Omroep Brabant,
Omroep Zeeland, L1		 Evoluon, Eindhoven NI NI P NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [70]
19 November Jeugdjournaal NPO 3 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI P NI NI P NI NI A NI NI P NI P NI P P [63]
20 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Ahoy, Rotterdam NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P P [69]
21 November NOS B67, The Hague P P NI P P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P NI NI [63]
NI NI P NI NI P P NI P P NI P NI P NI P P [63]

NOS op 3 debates

In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders is hosted by news programme NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates are broadcast in real-time and are held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, ask the candidates various questions.[71]

Assaults and attacks on Thierry Baudet

Thierry Baudet founder and leader of Forum for Democracy (FvD) was assaulted on 26 October 2023 with an umbrella upon his arrival at Ghent University.[72][73]

On 20 November 2023, Baudet was assaulted again, this time in Groningen and was later hospitalized.[74]

Opinion polls

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch general election

800x800px

Results

10
20
30
40
PVV
GL–PvdA
VVD
NSC
D66
BBB
CDA
SP
FvD
PvdD
CU
DENK
SGP
Volt
JA21
50+
BIJ1
  •   Maintained
  •   Gained
  •   Lost

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By province

Results by province[75]
Province PVV GL/
PvdA		 VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP DENK FvD PvdD SGP CU Volt JA21 Others
 Drenthe
 Flevoland
 Friesland
 Gelderland
 Groningen
 Limburg
 North Brabant
 North Holland
 Overijssel
 South Holland
 Utrecht
 Zeeland
 Caribbean Netherlands

Aftermath

International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[76] and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV).[77][78][79] Following his victory he was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken.[80]

The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. However, due to its Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and anti-Islamic policies,[81][82][83] prior to the elections many parties have said they don't want to form a government with Wilders and PVV.[84]

Possible outcomes

According to Reuters, there are four possible outcomes of the election.[84]

PVV-led coalition

The first involves a government, led by PVV.[85] Wilders has indicated interest in commencing negotiations with the other parties, saying: "I call on the parties... Now we will have to look for agreements with each other". Further proclaiming that "the PVV can no longer be ignored".[78]

VVD party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius ruled out working under Wilders as prime minister as she does not believe he can form a majority, saying on 21 November after the release of the exit polls: "It's his move now. He has to show whether he can form a majority."[86]

After the release of the exit polls, Pieter Omtzigt of the NSC party expressed interest in joining a coalition government by saying that he is "available", although he did not specify which parties he's expecting to reach out to him. He warned that negotiation of such a coalition agreement with PVV will "not be easy".[78] Omtzigt had previously indicated unwillingness to work with PVV in a coalition government as he believed that they do not meet the "basic conditions of the rule of law".[87]

GroenLinks–PvdA lead candidate Frans Timmermans appeared to rule out a coalition with PVV over its anti-immigration views, saying: "We will never form a coalition with parties that pretend that asylum seekers are the source of all misery".[76]

Big tent coalition

Without the PVV, a broad big tent government involving GL–PvdA, VVD, NSC, and one smaller party, potentially D66 or BBB is also possible. It could be led by GL–PvdA lead candidate Frans Timmermans, which will have the second-largest party in parliament. Leftist parties have demanded a "softer tone on asylum seekers" and a wealth tax as a condition of joining.[84]

Centrist minority government

It is also possible that a minority government could be formed by the VVD and NSC. According to Reuters, "Omtzigt has said he would favour this setup as it would prevent parties from rigidly sticking to prearranged plans. This also would seek to work with right-wing parties on issues like immigration, while working with left-wing parties on social issues. However, the VVD has said this type of government is inherently unstable and not a preferred option."[84]

Snap election

If a coalition agreement can not be found, it is possible that another round of snap elections will be called.[85]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ As the Labour Party (9 seats) and GroenLinks (8 seats)
  2. ↑ As the Pirate Party (0 seats) and The Greens (0 seats)

References

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